Of course, looking at the future is fun. But it is hard as well. Read 13 mistakes you can make when exploring the future. The first 3:
- Presentism; Interpreting the future or future possibilities with present-day attitudes and values. Imagine fifty or a hundred years ago, a view of 2010. Could an African-American be president? Certainly not.
- Over-optimism; Assuming that change will happen faster than it likely can. Usually this means a technological change that will, in fact, be held up by social forces, but the reverse is also possible.
- Over-pessimism; Assuming change will happen slowly or never. Our sense of “that will never happen” is rooted in experience—it is often hard to make a desired change. So we may assume that change won’t happen, or will take a long time to happen. But there are breakthroughs in technology and society all the time.